![]() While a real military confrontation always looms, many experts believe that China would rather conduct political and economic warfare to undermine the U.S. “I think both countries would act quickly to try and de-escalate if there were an exchange of fire in the. “I don’t think the South China Sea would start a war, but I do think there’s a risk of miscalculation that could result in localized hostilities,” said Blake Herzinger, a civilian Indo-Pacific defense policy specialist and Naval Reserve officer based in Singapore. There’s also the risk that mistakes could start a conflict without strategic intention on either side. risks losing such a war if its military does not adjust to this new reality,” said Brown, who until recently served as head of Pacific Air Forces. Charles “CQ” Brown, on Monday warned that the next war - a war with a peer adversary like China or Russia - is likely to be highly contested and could see “combat attrition rates and risks - that are more akin to the World War II era than the uncontested environment to which we have become accustomed” since the Gulf War. ![]() But within the next decade or less, straining relations coupled with increased Chinese military capability could bring events to the brink. Moreover, the nuclear weapons on both sides certainly serve to make leaders more cautious. Rampton)Įxperts roundly agreed that immediate conflict remains unlikely, given the huge costs in lives and treasure. 7th Fleet area of operations to enhance interoperability with allies and partners and serve as a ready response force to defend peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. America, flagship of the America Expeditionary Strike Group, 31st MEU team, is operating in the U.S. SOUTH CHINA SEA (April 23, 2020) An F-35B Lightning II fighter aircraft with Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 265 (Reinforced), 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), prepares to take off from the flight deck of amphibious assault ship USS America (LHA 6). troops now concentrated in South Korea and Japan farther south and west and to ensure that, at a basic level, those countries side with the U.S., rather than China, in any possible conflict. This network expansion serves several purposes: to increase the total number of assets available to deploy against China, if need be to explore more forward-basing opportunities that would spread U.S. The 2018 National Defense Strategy aims to shore up not only troops and weapons to deter a fight in the Pacific, but also to expand its network of allies in the region. There’re also growing concerns about cyber warfare and space.Ĭhina’s moves are so bold that the Pentagon has reoriented its entire worldview. Other triggers could include China’s land claims across the region, its growing economic might, shifting regional alliances and the ever-present tensions on the Korean peninsula. And, of course, those seas are heavily trafficked by ships, both military and commercial, adding more potential for confrontations. freedom-of-navigation operations in the South and East China seas that so irritate the Chinese. “This will undoubtedly embolden the PLA’s provocative behavior in the South and East China seas, and anywhere else the Chinese government has deemed critical to its interests.”įriction across the region is ripe for escalation - from the long-standing Chinese threats against Taiwan to the the U.S. 26 at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. The Chinese military “continues to pursue an aggressive modernization plan to achieve a world-class military by the middle of the century,” he said Aug. and China as the latter looks to extend its military might outside its borders. and Chinese military are setting up more tripwires across the Pacific Rim that could draw the world’s two largest powers into open conflict.ĭuring a recent trip to Hawaii, Defense Secretary Mark Esper outlined the rising tension between the U.S. It’s a global contingency that Pentagon planners are now studying more than ever before, as both the U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman River Bruce) This is the first BTF deployment to the PACAF theater since the B-2 Spirit from the 393rd Bomb Squadron, Whiteman AFB, Missouri, deployed to Hawaii in January 2019. The 9th EBS is deployed from the 7th Bomb Wing, Dyess AFB, Texas. It was one of two B-1s conducting a training mission in the South China Sea in support of Pacific Air Forces’ training efforts and strategic deterrence missions to reinforce the rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific region. A 9th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron B-1B Lancer takes off at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, May 8, 2020.
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